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: The next ten bird species to appear in Illinois  ( 24775 )

calcariusp

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The next ten bird species to appear in Illinois
« : December 10, 2010, 02:56:23 PM »
I have an “exercise” that I think the birding community will have a fun time participating in during the holiday season.  What do you think will be the next ten species added to the official Illinois state bird list?  This is something that has been done a few times in Illinois already in past years, but always makes for an interesting and fun game to see how accurately the species picked will wind up being what is actually found next.  Although those that have tried this in the past have done a pretty good job, there are also always a few species that folks say, “who knew that was going to show up?”  Good examples would be the Large-billed Tern that showed up one year at Lake Calumet, and the Hepatic Tanager that showed up in a farmyard in Adams County on 23 November, 1981.  Some might say it was pretty strange for a Brown-headed Nuthatch and a Red-cockaded Woodpecker to have been added to the state list relatively recently…except amazingly Robert Ridgway picked both species way back in 1881, in his list of birds that he thought should occur at some point in Illinois.  The more strange thing was that the two species showed up at the exact same place within a year or two of one another…at Illinois Beach State Park (SOUTH of the restricted Dead River).

   Ridgway’s list contained 38 kinds of birds that wound up being accepted as full species, and of those 38 species he chose in 1881,  23 have since been found.  Dave Bohlen wrote a short article in the Illinois Audubon Bulletin (Vol. 185:31-34) in 1978 going over Ridgway’s list and picking the next twenty species that he thought would appear in Illinois.  If you include the Smew he chose (and which some Illinois birders claim to have seen on the Illinois side of the Mississippi near Alton, but was mainly seen in Missouri), 14 of 20 of Bohlen’s picks have since shown up in Illinois.  Eric Walters and Josh Engel also wrote an article for the Meadowlark ten years ago entitled Illinois’ Next New Bird, and solicited the opinions of 17 of Illinois’s more active/knowledgeable birders at the time, and asked them what they thought would be their top ten bird species, coming up with a list of 12 species.  Each species had a number assigned to it by the number of 1st to 10th place votes that the species received.  For those that don’t remember or know about this article, here are the results (number in parenthesis is the # of 1st place votes received):
Fork-tailed Flycatcher (4)
Green Violetear (1)
Brambling (4)
Long-billed Murrelet
Bullock’s Oriole (3)
Cave Swallow (1)
Anna’s Hummingbird (1)
Kelp Gull
Hermit Warbler (2)
Black-tailed Gull
Inca Dove
Roseate Spoonbill

Eight of these 12 species have since shown up, including most recently, the current Anna’s Hummingbird.  As this is the tenth “anniversary” of that article, I thought it might be fun to see what Illinois’s birders would now pick as their top ten species that they might expect next in Illinois.  As I was involved in voting for the last article, I think I chose the Fork-tailed Flycatcher as my #1 pick, but for the last several years I have been telling folks that the Brambling is my “pick to click”, as it is very overdue to show up in Illinois, with Bramblings having been found in several nearby states, sometimes several records.  My list would be something like this with those that I think more likely to show up next at the top, least likely at the bottom:
Brambling
Bullock’s Oriole
Lewis’s Woodpecker
Gray Jay
Calliope Hummingbird
Black-chinned Hummingbird
Red-necked Stint
White Wagtail
Bridled Tern
Lesser Goldfinch
White-winged Tern
Heerman’s Gull

I just couldn’t hold myself to ten species, but cut myself off at a dozen.  Bohlen did not discuss why he chose his 20 species (although Ridgway did).  Walters and Engel had more discussion.  As for my picks, you always have to have a gull and a shorebird, and with increasing hurricanes, you should always have at least one or two storm waifs, don’t you?  With new hummers showing up all the time, including in all the surrounding states and rare western hummers becoming more and more common in the Gulf, I chose the next two that will arrive.  Then there are species that Illinois is just way overdue for, like Brambling, Lewis’s Woodpecker (records for lots of states from all around us), Bullock’s Oriole and Gray Jay.  Then my more unlikely picks (but still in the realm of possibility) are the White-winged Tern, White Wagtail and Lesser Goldfinch.  You wouldn’t want to play it too safe would you?  If there are enough respondents to this post maybe we can do another article like Eric and Josh did, for the Meadowlark.  But let’s have fun with this…and the explanations for our choices could be even more interesting!

Steve Bailey

Tom Kelly

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Re: The next ten bird species to appear in Illinois
« #1 : December 10, 2010, 03:41:53 PM »
Nice topic Steve, I like any post that involves future rarities, here are my 10 (in no particular order):

1) Bullock's Oriole
2) Lewis's Woodpecker
3) Black-chinned Hummingbird
4) Painted Redstart
5) Rufous-crowned Sparrow (not that far away now)
6) Greater Roadrunner (not that far away now)
7) Limpkin (records from Tennessee)
8) Black-capped Vireo
9) Plumbeous Vireo
10) Gray Flycatcher
11) Black Phoebe (OK, 11)

I left off the Long-billed Murrelet, just because that seems a perennial choice.  A tubenose of some sort would be nice, I might add.
Tom Kelly

Craig Taylor

Re: The next ten bird species to appear in Illinois
« #2 : December 10, 2010, 09:12:48 PM »
If you include the Smew he chose (and which some Illinois birders claim to have seen on the Illinois side of the Mississippi near Alton, but was mainly seen in Missouri),

There is no "claim" involved.  It WAS seen in Illinois, and I was one of the birders who saw it.

We were watching the Smew, well within the Missouri border (we were in Missouri), when hunters started shooting.  All the ducks flew and landed on the Illinois side of the river.

calcariusp

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Re: The next ten bird species to appear in Illinois
« #3 : December 11, 2010, 06:26:34 AM »
No problem Craig.  I am also one of those who claim to have seen it in Illinois. :)  I just don't think that either anyone documented it in Illinois, or the IORC didn't accept it on the basis of origin.  Although Missouri originally accepted it, I thinked they later changed their minds (does anyone know if it is on Missouri's official list?).  Thanks Tom for your list!  I thought some of these bigtime, big year listers would have an educated opinion about the next birds they will be going to chase....but I guess it is just about the chasing and ticking.   ???  Come on, this is supposed to be fun!   ;D

Steve B.

Bruce Heimer

Re: The next ten bird species to appear in Illinois
« #4 : December 11, 2010, 07:35:52 AM »
Hey Steve,

No particular order:

Phainopepla
Steller's Jay
Harris's Hawk
Limpkin
Kelp Gull
Greater Roadrunner
Painted Redstart
Brambling
Black-chinned Hummingbird
Lewis's Woodpecker
Gray Jay (Mine go'es to eleven)

Bruce Heimer



Tom Kelly

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Re: The next ten bird species to appear in Illinois
« #5 : December 11, 2010, 08:26:56 AM »
I forgot about Phainopepla, that's a good candidate too.
Tom Kelly

Dan Williams

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Re: The next ten bird species to appear in Illinois
« #6 : December 11, 2010, 09:28:03 AM »
Steve,

I believe that the IORC did not accept the Smew based on origin.  I'm sure that someone who was/is on the committee can provide the answer. Not sure what MO ultimately did, but I understood that initially they accepted it. 

My own list, also in no particular order:

Brambling
Common Crane
Western Wood-pewee
Steller's Jay
Lewis' Woodpecker
Northern Lapwing
Plumbeous Vireo
Barnacle Goose
McCown's Longspur
Great Gray Owl
Calliope Hummingbird

Josh Engel

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Re: The next ten bird species to appear in Illinois
« #7 : December 11, 2010, 10:12:51 AM »
If I remember correctly, after Eric's and my article was published the next two new birds to show up were those Red-cockaded Woodpecker and Brown-headed Nuthatch that Steve mentioned.  So although 8 of the 12 that were nominated have shown up since, the first two after the article were not only not in the top twelve, but I don't think they garnered even a single vote.  I was a little nervous about our prospects after that, but the birds seem to have come through for us since.

It's interesting to see Kelp Gull on the top-twelve list.  This is one that wouldn't earn a single vote today, but at the time they were breeding on islands off Louisiana and dark-mantled gulls were showing up around the country with increasing frequency, so it wasn't an unreasonable guess. 

Josh Engel

JPU

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Re: The next ten bird species to appear in Illinois
« #8 : December 11, 2010, 11:34:18 AM »
Yes, Smew is on the Missouri checklist - Here is the record:  http://www.showme-birds.com/index_files/Page354.htm

Which reads as follows:  Jan 13-27, 2001 - 1st state record

(1); Photographed; RMBS, St. Charles Co.; Matt Gearheart, Roger McNeil, Joe Alburty, Brad Jacobs et al; 14th Annual MBRC Report, 2001-9; Bird showed no sign of being an escapee and their were many reasons to think it had a natural origin.  Committee accepted record based on preponderance of evidence in favor of natural origin.

However, I am not one that saw the Smew in Illinois waters (only Missouri), but was fortunate to get the Black Skimmer in Missouri and Illinois waters.

Josh
Joshua Uffman
St. Louis County, Missouri
www.showme-birds.com

Ari Rice

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Re: The next ten bird species to appear in Illinois
« #9 : December 11, 2010, 12:51:01 PM »
How about Eurasian/ Common Teal?
@@@@@@@@ Ari R. @@@@@@@@@

Tom Kelly

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Re: The next ten bird species to appear in Illinois
« #10 : December 11, 2010, 12:54:07 PM »
I don't believe that is technically a different species according to the ABA.  Also, I seem to remember one being seen a few years back (I don't remember who saw it, or if it was documented).
Tom Kelly

Matt McKim-Louder

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Re: The next ten bird species to appear in Illinois
« #11 : December 11, 2010, 02:37:50 PM »
Least likely at bottom (with records from nearby states for some sort of reasoning)

1- Bullock's Oriole (MO, AR, TN, KY, and IA)
2- Black-chinned Hummingbird (MO, AR, KY, TN)
3- Lesser Goldfinch (MO, AR, KY, and IA)
4- Brambling (MO and IA)
5- Lewis' Woodpecker (MO and AR)
6- White-throated Swift (MO and AR)
7- Gray Jay (MO-hypothetical and IA)
8- Band-rumped Storm-Petrel (MO, TN, KY and storm waif)
9- Eastern Yellow Wagtail (I liked the wagtail idea, few eastern states)
10- Lesser Sand-Plover (stint was already taken)
« : December 12, 2010, 05:32:26 PM Matt McKim-Louder »

Jeff Skrentny

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Re: The next ten bird species to appear in Illinois
« #12 : December 11, 2010, 04:27:00 PM »
Steve,

I think this is an excellent good thread, thanks for beginning it.  I don't feel I have enough knowledge to add my guesses, but you can be sure I appreciate all those who are adding to the thread.  Thanks everyone for sharing, I find your guesses and your justifications for your picks very instructive.  Finally, Steve, I hope you will share the additional information you alluded to on IBET here, I for one would be most interested in reading it.


PS...and yes, I do love to twitch, wondering how those of you who make predictions gather the info that gives you the hunches you have.  8 of 12 from 10 years ago is a pretty impressive hit list if you ask me. 
« : December 11, 2010, 04:36:16 PM Jeff Skrentny »
-jrrs
Jeff Skrentny
SkrentnySpeaks@me.com
Chicago, Cook County, IL

Matthew Cvetas

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Re: The next ten bird species to appear in Illinois
« #13 : December 11, 2010, 05:04:54 PM »
I revised my order from most to least probable.

Bullock's Oriole (IA, IN, MI, MO, MN, WI)
Brambling (IA, IN, MI, MO, MN, WI)
Gray Jay (IA, MI, MN, MO, WI)
Lewis's Woodpecker (IA, MI, MO, MN, WI)
Great Gray Owl (IA, MI, MN, WI)
Western Wood-Pewee (IA, IN, MN, WI)
Thick-billed Murre (IA, IN, MI, WI)
Long-billed Murrelet (IA, IN, MN)
Smew (MO, MN, WI)  
White-winged Tern (IN, WI)
« : December 12, 2010, 08:53:24 AM Matthew Cvetas »
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Scott Cohrs

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Re: The next ten bird species to appear in Illinois
« #14 : December 11, 2010, 08:19:00 PM »
Always fun to ponder this question.  And when something completely off the radar shows up, it shows how you just never know what will happen.  Most of the 'likely' next species have been listed, so I'll go off the board with some crazier, but possible, species.  I'll start with two that have already been reported, and most likely of wild origin, just not accepted for various reasons:

Barnacle Goose (surely one of these has been of wild origin)
Brown-chested Martin (single observer sighting a few years back, but the observer is one of the most respected birders in the state...)

Black Guillemot
any other Godwit
Little Stint
Red-necked Stint
Great Knot (going deep here, but one in West Va a few years ago)
Common Poorwill (tantalizing report of one heard earlier this year... Will be a remarkable case of right place, right time at night..)
White-collared Swift
Red-naped Sapsucker (Dan K. had an interesting sapsucker a few weeks back at Carlyle)

As an aside, this topic always makes me wonder what birds have already been in IL, just gone undetected.  For instance, the Green-breasted Mango in Beloit a few years ago surely had to pass through IL, didn't it?  Or the Common Crane from Indiana (Jasper)?

Finally, I've always wanted to start a separate thread to hear the background stories about some of the rarer birds on the IL list.  I am mainly talking about the one time occurrences.  An example is the Hepatic Tanager.  I knew it was on the IL list, but I have absolutely no idea where it was seen, by whom, if there was a funny side story to the discovery, etc.  Northern Wheatear is another one I know nothing about.  I'm sure people would enjoy hearing about some of these again, without having to search through archives of old IL Audubon Bulletins.  Just a thought on a cold winter's day...

Scott
scott.cohrs@experian.com

 

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